What if the Nordic countries were one country?
What if the Nordic countries of Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Iceland united and formed one power block in Northern Europe? How would they rank economically, militarily, in terms of happiness? And why would this even work?
The United Nordics would be Global GDP Heavyweights
2023 data further solidifies the argument that a United Nordics would be an economic force to be reckoned with. While full-year 2023 GDP rankings aren’t finalized, estimates indicate a total combined GDP well over $1.6 trillion (USD).
The figure below likely places the United Nordics close to the top 10 largest economies globally, showcasing substantial economic clout.The United Nordics, considering their combined economic potential, would be projected to rival the scale of economies like Canada and Brazil in terms of GDP. Their potential GDP places them even within striking distance of long-standing financial powers like Italy and France. While still at a significant gap from the U.S. and China, the United Nordics would nonetheless command a powerful seat at the table within the global economy.
| Rank | Country/Region | Estimated GDP (USD Trillions) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | $25.35 |
| 2 | China | $19.91 |
| 3 | Japan | $4.93 |
| 4 | Germany | $4.23 |
| 5 | United Kingdom | $3.19 |
| 6 | India | $3.47 |
| 7 | France | $2.94 |
| 8 | Italy | $2.07 |
| 9 | Canada | $2.02 |
| 10 | Brazil | $1.85 |
| 11 | United Nordics (Hypothetical) | $1.6+ |
- Data Sources: GDP estimates are primarily sourced from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (October 2023). Since full-year and finalized 2023 data may still be pending for some countries, there’s room for minor adjustments to these figures.
- The United Nordics Estimate: A more precise United Nordics figure requires aggregating individual country data and calculating projected growth/exchange rate factors. The $1.6+ represents a conservative estimate.
- Why this Table Matters: This demonstrates that the combined economic strength of the Nordic nations places them firmly within the world’s leading economies. It drives home their status as more than just regional players and emphasizes their potential significance if truly united.
Military Spending and Personnel
Nordic countries are increasingly prioritizing defense investments in response to a changing security landscape. In 2023, their combined military expenditures are estimated to be approximately $25-28 billion (USD). Consolidated as a single nation, this spending, paired with around 80,000 active duty personnel and cutting-edge technology, would forge a highly capable military force, surpassing nations of much larger size in defense capability.
Top Global Military Spenders (2023 Estimates) – With Integrated United Nordics
| Rank | Country/Region | Estimated Spending (USD Billions) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | $877 |
| 2 | China | $292 |
| 3 | Russia | $86.4 |
| 4 | India | $81.4 |
| 5 | United Kingdom | $68.5 |
| … | … | … |
| 12 (approx) | United Nordics (Hypothetical) | $25-28 |
The Happiness Factor and Beyond
Even with recent global challenges, Nordic countries hold strong in human development metrics. Finland retains its 2023 title as the world’s happiest country, with Denmark, Iceland, Sweden, and Norway all appearing within the top 10. Beyond happiness, these nations continue to champion innovation, sustainable solutions, and a low corruption environment – further reinforcing their potential to make a significant global impact as a unified bloc.
Resource Wealth, Balancing Growth
Harnessing the complementary resources of the region remains key. Iceland’s renewable energy expertise and fisheries, Norway’s oil and gas sector (though a focus on energy transition is needed), Finland‘s tech leadership, Sweden’s innovative and industrial power, and Denmark’s agriculture all become a shared arsenal for development. However, the geographical reality – sprawling territory from the Arctic to central Europe – requires a meticulous approach for balanced economic growth, infrastructure, and regional inclusivity.
Foreign Policy Harmony, A Work in Progress
On the foreign policy front, the Nordic nations demonstrate remarkable alignment, promising immense clout if they were a single country. Their shared commitments to democracy, human rights, sustainable development, and peaceful conflict resolution provide a strong foundation for unified action. While recent events like Sweden and Finland’s pursuit of NATO membership or Norway’s status outside the EU might highlight differences, these are exceptions rather than the norm. In global contexts like the UN or in championing issues such as climate action, the Nordic countries work effectively in concert, proving that a more formal union could yield an influential diplomatic force.
- Nordic Council: Historical connections, the binding values of the Nordic Model, and institutions like the Nordic Council (called the oldest regional partnership in the world) continue to create fertile ground upon which cooperation thrives. These factors enable the Nordics to achieve more together than they ever could individually.
- Defense Cooperation: Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark are engaged in NORDEFCO (Nordic Defence Cooperation) highlighting their ability to find common security ground despite different NATO/EU statuses.
- The Helsinki Declaration of 2002: This declaration outlines Nordic priorities for cooperation in foreign and security policy, showcasing the potential for a single, well-defined strategic vision.
- United Voting Bloc: Nordic countries frequently coordinate their votes and align positions within international organizations.
The Nordic countries have more in common than most countries
So, why would this work? Many country unions struggle, not seldom because values differ, cultures clash, and political systems diverge wildly. The Nordic region presents a potentially different equation, one built upon deeply shared values, long-standing cooperation, and a surprising level of similarity. Let’s examine why:
Shared History and Viking Roots: Centuries of interaction during the Viking age and beyond laid a bedrock of common customs, cultural exchange, and even language intermingling (Swedish, Danish, and Norwegian share substantial overlap). This isn’t a guarantee of friction-free fusion, but it establishes a sense of deep connection that other unification scenarios lack.
Below are the main languages spoken in the Nordic countries, plus insights into how well they understand each other:
| Language | Primary Countries | Related Languages | Mutual Intelligibility |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danish | Denmark, Faroe Islands, Greenland | Norwegian, Swedish, Icelandic (to a lesser extent) | – High understanding of written Norwegian (Bokmål) – Moderate understanding of spoken Norwegian – Limited understanding of written Swedish – Minimal understanding of spoken Swedish |
| Norwegian | Norway | Danish, Swedish, Icelandic (to a lesser extent) | – High understanding of written and spoken Swedish – High understanding of written Danish (Bokmål) – Moderate understanding of spoken Danish – Limited understanding of Icelandic |
| Swedish | Sweden, Finland (as a minority language) | Danish, Norwegian, Icelandic (to a lesser extent) | – High understanding of written and spoken Norwegian – Moderate understanding of written Danish – Limited understanding of spoken Danish – Limited understanding of Icelandic |
| Icelandic | Iceland | Faroese (closest relative), other North Germanic languages (more distantly) | – Limited understanding of written Danish, Norwegian, and Swedish – Minimal understanding of spoken Danish, Norwegian, and Swedish |
| Finnish | Finland, (minority language in Sweden, Norway, Russia) | Estonian (closest relative), other Finnic/Uralic languages (very distantly) | – No understanding of Scandinavian languages (Danish, Norwegian, Swedish) |
Not unimportant: All Nordic nations rank highly in English fluency. This acts as the unofficial, practical language of common ground for many professional and international situations.
The ‘Nordic Model’ and business
The Nordic model presents a surprisingly business-friendly framework. A well-educated workforce, a safety net encouraging risk-taking, and the ‘flexicurity‘ system (balancing flexibility and worker support) all contribute to a stable and innovative business climate. A ‘United Nordics’ would amplify these effects, leading to a globally competitive economic bloc.
The Nordic countries have higher tax rates compared to nations like the United States. According to the OECD, Denmark’s Norway’s and Sweden’s tax revenue was over 40 percent of GDP. Comparatively, the United States raised around a quarter of its GDP through taxation.
A key distinction when discussing the Nordic model is the difference between taxes and the benefits offered in return:
- Taxation as Investment: Rather than simply taking income, these taxes largely fund expansive public services like healthcare, education, childcare, and infrastructure. Citizens get significant, tangible benefits that reduce long-term costs they might otherwise pay out-of-pocket.
- Focus on Quality of Life: While individual tax burdens are higher, the Nordic model promotes social and economic equality, aiming to reduce individual financial stress through shared costs and stronger social support systems.
Other factors contributing to the success of the Nordic model also need to be noted:
- Social Trust and Low Corruption: Efficient use of tax revenues relies on strong public trust in institutions and low levels of government corruption.
- Economic Structures: Historically homogenous populations and regulated market economies help manage welfare state sustainability and distribute benefits broadly.
- Flexicurity: The Nordic model presents a surprisingly business-friendly framework. A well-educated workforce, a safety net encouraging risk-taking, and the ‘flexicurity’ system (balancing flexibility and worker support) all contribute to a stable and innovative business climate. A ‘United Nordics’ would amplify these effects, leading to a globally competitive economic bloc.
All of these countries embrace some variation of the Nordic Model, known for combining regulated capitalism with strong social safety nets, worker’s rights, and high human development. Similar political DNA minimizes major shifts in governance philosophy, easing the path to harmonized law, economy, and social policy if unified.
Mutual Values: High Trust and Equality: Nordic societies pride themselves on high levels of social trust, low corruption, and a dedication to gender equality and inclusivity. This shared emphasis on fairness and shared responsibility builds a solid base for collective governance within a unified nation.
Environmental Pioneers: Sustainability, resource consciousness, and innovation in green technologies are forefront within the Nordic identity. Such common priorities would allow a United Nordics to be a force on the global stage in tackling climate change and setting eco-friendly standards.
Open Mindedness, Moderate Political Discourse: While different political flavors do exist in the Nordic landscape, their approach to debate and change tends towards moderation and finding common ground. This could promote more nuanced problem-solving and compromise within a unified government, avoiding the deadlock often encountered in more rigidly divided politics.
Strong Precedent of Cooperation: It’s not just theorizing – there’s already the Nordic Council and Council of Ministers facilitating dialogue, common labor markets, and harmonized policy in many areas. These well-functioning institutions would form a springboard for navigating the complex challenges of deeper integration.
Important Caveats
- Unique Voices Matter: Even with such alignment, each Nordic nation holds onto its character and individual identities. Unification necessitates ensuring these specific needs and cultural expressions are preserved.
- Language Isn’t Universal: While Danish, Swedish, and Norwegian are intertwined, Icelandic and Finnish remain quite distinct. A unified nation would necessitate robust multilingual policies and education initiatives.
- It’s About The Future, Too: It isn’t solely about existing values, but whether a United Nordics vision galvanizes its people and offers inspiration for its growth beyond individual successes. A bold, collective identity would need to take shape.
Whether as a single force or through deepened cooperation, Nordic nations remain undeniable agents for positive change, demonstrating impressive economic potential, societal achievement, and dedication to common values. Regardless of future unification scenarios, the 2023 data showcases their continued rising status on the world stage.
Further reading
- For the best statistics on the Nordic region you can either use the countries’ national statistics agencies (such as SSB for Norway, SCB for Sweden and Statistics Denmark) or the Nordic Council statistics database for the region.
- World Happiness Report: https://worldhappiness.report/
- IMF World Economic Outlook Data: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2023/October
- SIPRI Military Expenditure Database: https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex
